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The John Batchelor Show

#AFTERTHOUGHT: #Russia: When does the Kremlin run out of money? Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 20 July 2023

⏱️ 2 minutes

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ROSTOV-ON-DON 1917

#AFTERTHOUGHT: #Russia: When does the Kremlin run out of money? Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.


https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-crash-ruble-imports-account-finance-putin-moscow-ukraine-2023-7



Transcript

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0:00.0

This is John Batshire, and a happy conversation with Michael Bernstum of Hoover Institution about

0:05.8

Russia under the sanctions. It occurred to me after we'd finished our conversation.

0:10.9

To go back and ask one more question, when does Russia run out of money? The spend down,

0:18.0

the shortfall in oil revenues, the collapse of the consumer society. It all eventually comes to

0:25.2

zero or less in the Kremlin. When? Here's Michael's response. That's a big question,

0:33.0

and what they have now, because of the budget deficit, the only source of financing is their

0:40.0

sovereign wealth fund. The same Saudi Arabia and others accumulated money from past sales of oil.

0:47.1

That's what it is. And they have about 155 billion, and they have now about

0:54.6

a hundred billion dollars of dollar terms of budget deficit. So it should last about a year and a

1:01.7

half. But the problem is that no longer it is dollars and British pounds and Japanese yen.

1:10.3

It is Chinese RMB, and so the willingness of banks and private depositors to purchase

1:17.5

Chinese assets is questionable. So it may be less than a year and a half. So, if

1:22.8

it's medical, yes, they have money to finance the budget deficit, all other things being

1:27.6

equal or a year and a half. But thanks may change. All right, maximum 2025.

1:35.3

I'm John Bachelor.

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