4.2 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 19 May 2017
⏱️ 59 minutes
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0:00.0 | Picture yourself on the beach, retired early and enjoying financial freedom. |
0:08.0 | If this is your dream, then now's the time to level up your investing game, and Real Vision can help you. We arm you with the |
0:15.0 | knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed on your financial journey on your |
0:20.7 | own terms. Take control of your future and visit real vision.com forward slash free. If you're thinking this sounds like your typical restaurant scene, well, you're right. It is. But what are we doing here? |
0:50.0 | This week we take a closer look at the restaurant industry, but we're not really looking at the restaurant industry. |
0:58.0 | What we're looking at is something much, much bigger. |
1:02.0 | Now here's a thing. If you understand what's happening in the restaurant |
1:05.9 | industry, you can see approaching recessions up to two years in advance. |
1:11.1 | And if advance. |
1:26.3 | And if you know what to pay attention to, what you'll find is that restaurant sales data have accurately predicted the last two U.S. recessions going all the way back to the year 2000. And to break it all down for us, we speak with a rare breed of analysts who is able to not only |
1:30.7 | forecast industry trends, but also to apply that same knowledge to make a much bigger call on the U.S. economy. |
1:38.0 | Featuring Paul Westra, senior research analyst at Stiefel. |
1:42.0 | You know, how does a restaurant analyst in his own little pod, you know, go out and make a big dramatic call about a potentiality for a U.S. economic recession? |
1:51.0 | But we fullheartedly believe it to be true. |
1:53.7 | And in short, what we've seen in 2016 is very reminiscent to what happened in 2007 and 2000. |
2:00.5 | In fact, if you look at the underlying sales data in the restaurant space and looked at that as a potential leading |
2:07.2 | indicator over US recession, I'd say the data we have in 2016 is actually more scary than it was in 2007. |
2:14.0 | So based on current data and if the historical relationship holds true, |
2:18.0 | we're in store for something really big. |
2:21.0 | This week on Adventures in Finance, the restaurant recession, and what it could mean for |
2:26.8 | the U.S. economy. Also coming up in this week's episode we have our usual long short segment |
2:39.1 | where Aaron and I discussed the good and the not so good stories of the week. |
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