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Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

Advanced Stats on Joe Burrow, Braxton Berrios and D'Andre Swift (01/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score

CBS Sports

Sports, Football

4.9721 Ratings

🗓️ 1 January 2022

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Are we going back to the Bengals passing game? Is Braxton Berrios a legit sleeper? And can we trust D'Andre Swift in his first game back?

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

We've got some advanced stats in your 2022 edition of fantasy football today in 5.

0:10.1

Happy New Year, everybody.

0:11.5

Welcome to the show, FFT and 5, Adam and Jacob Gibbs.

0:14.9

Hope everybody's having an amazing 2022.

0:17.0

Yeah, one day in.

0:18.9

So we're going to talk about the Bengals passing game, a sleeper-wide receiver for the New York Jets, and one other player a little bit later on. I'll save it in the title anyway. All right, let's talk about Burrow coming off a 500-yard game. Higgins, almost 200 yards. What kind of performance are we getting this week? I am really excited for these guys. I think one thing that's

0:38.8

worth noting with Burrow and Higgins and Jamar Chase really altogether is that they have like

0:43.1

the most extreme man versus zone splits in the entire NFL really of any like, you know, player,

0:48.3

quarterback and pass catcher. And so we had seen them face a ton of man heavy coverage schemes early

0:53.9

in the year and perform really well. And there was a bit of a mid-season drought there for Burrow, at least, where they played a lot more zone-heavy teams. But recently, their schedule has gone back to facing more man-heavy teams, and they get one of the most man-heavy coverage schemes in the NFL this week in the Chiefs. And also, it's expected to be really high-scoring, of course. So, like, I think sets up really well here. And then the other thing specifically about the

1:13.3

chiefs is they play press coverage at the second highest rate in the NFL. And so those two things

1:19.1

are really, really exciting for T. Higgins. Higgins has actually been targeted at the

1:24.6

fourth highest rate of any player in the NFL when pressed in terms of his

1:29.4

target parat run rate when facing press coverage.

1:32.8

Almost every receiver sees their target parat run rate drop and the yard parat run rate

1:36.4

drop when facing press, but T. Higgins has not.

1:39.6

So I'm really excited for him here.

1:41.1

He's also been significantly better against man coverage throughout his career.

1:44.0

And then the same could be set for Jamar Chase. Of course, it's a small example size, but he's just been ridiculously efficient against man. And then of course, with those two receivers just like shredding man coverage, that leads us to Burrow, who has the second highest pass rating in the NFL versus man coverage. And then the other thing that's exciting is Burrow aggressively attacks downfield. This average depth of target when facing man coverage is the highest in the NFL. So I think it makes sense here with the Chiefs getting up and pressing really being physical with them. We could see them being beaten downfield, even though Chief Stevens has been a lot better lately. Really, it's a dream matchup for the Cincinnati guys. Okay. And Joe Burrow, PFF's top-rated passer in their grades for the season. He's been so good. Yeah, it's weird. People might not think that, but he's been better than the numbers. And that was even before the 500-yard game, by the way. So next step, we have Braxton Barrio. So you actually talked about on Monday as a surprise player that could help people win their league.

2:35.1

I'm obviously skeptical of any Jets wide receiver not named Elijah Moore.

2:38.2

But what do you like about Braxton Barrios? Right. Yeah. I mean, if Zach Wilson goes out and throws for 100 yards against Tampa Bay, then like that's going to, you know, crush the Barrios play here. but I think really in terms of like what he needs to justify his drafting salary or just what you need if you're

2:51.7

like starting him in a pinch in a ppr league all he could get there on receptions alone

...

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