Adam Posen on the Dangers of Jerome Powell's 'Rifle Shot' Jackson Hole Speech
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 30 August 2024
⏱️ 39 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Last week at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a short and powerful speech indicating that it's time for a policy pivot. The goal now, from his perspective, is to prevent further deterioration of the US labor market. His speech didn't delve much into theory or nuance. In this episode, we speak with Peterson Institute President, Adam Posen, who found the speech unsatisfying. He argues that the state of the labor market, while cooling, didn't merit a "rifle shot" approach, such as the one Powell delivered. He explains his concerns and how he sees the risks materializing from here.
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| 0:40.8 | Listen to the deal wherever you get your podcast. And Podcasts, radio news. Hello and I'm Tracy Allaway. So, I don't know if I would describe the mood here at Jackson Hole. |
| 1:17.0 | So by the way, we are recording this August 23rd, the day of Powell's big speech. |
| 1:22.0 | I don't know if I would describe the mood as like |
| 1:25.9 | declaring victory per se, but I would say on the narrow question of like is the |
| 1:32.0 | problem of inflation over the verdict seems to be yes it is I |
| 1:36.8 | think the big difference for me is last year in 2023 there was a lot of discussion about the idea of the trajectory of |
| 1:45.8 | inflation was looking pretty good. The direction of travel was where the |
| 1:50.9 | Central Bank wanted it to go, but there was still a lot of caution about the risk |
| 1:55.3 | of an upside surprise and inflation could come back. And we saw that to some extent in Q1 of this year. |
| 2:03.2 | But I don't think it was the degree |
| 2:05.1 | that necessarily people were worried about in August 2023. |
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