About Those Polls…

The Daily

The New York Times

Daily News, News

4.4 • 102.8K Ratings

🗓️ 10 November 2020

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Nate Cohn, an expert on polling for The New York Times, knows that the predictions for the 2016 presidential election were bad. But this year, he says, they were even worse. So, what happened? Nate talks us through a few of his theories and considers whether, after two flawed performances, polling should be ditched. Guest: Nate Cohn, a domestic correspondent for The Upshot at The New York Times, speaks to us about the polls and breaks down the election results. For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily Background reading: As the results rolled in on Tuesday night, so did a strong sense of déjà vu. Pre-election polls, it appeared, had been misleading once again.Leading Republicans — including Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader — have backed President Trump’s refusal to concede.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, it's Michael. This episode has now been updated to clarify our analysis of the Latino
0:07.0	vote in the election.
0:12.1	From New York Times, I'm Michael Bavaro. This is The Daily.
0:22.1	Today.
0:24.0	The results of the election taught us about the American electorate and about the polling
0:30.5	that once again failed to correctly understand it. A conversation with my colleague, Nate Cohen.
0:41.0	It's Tuesday, November 10th.
0:47.2	So Nate, we want to have two conversations with you. The first is about what we learned
0:55.9	from the vote, the results of the selection, now that the race has been called. And second
1:02.8	is what we learned about why the polls were so off once again, including our own polling
1:11.0	here at the Times and kind of have a reckoning on that front.
1:14.3	Sounds good.
1:15.3	Right. I'm sure it's going to be a total pleasure for you.
1:19.4	I will be.
1:20.4	Let's start with the voters and how this historic turnout for both candidates broke down.
1:28.1	And perhaps those intriguing groups in this campaign and so far in the results are Latino
1:35.5	voters.
1:36.5	So tell us what the final ish data is telling you about Latino voters.
1:44.6	Well, I suspect that many listening right now have probably heard that Donald Trump
1:50.0	failed quite well among Latino voters. You learned that pretty quickly on election night
1:55.4	when the results from Miami-Dade County and Florida come in. And now that we've seen
1:58.9	more detailed results from elsewhere in the country, I think we can safely say that
	...

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