A Warning about polls. With UVA's Larry Sabato
The Bill Press Pod
BP Pods
4.7 • 601 Ratings
🗓️ 17 September 2024
⏱️ 37 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Larry Sabato is the Founder and Director of the University of Virginia Institute of Politics. There is no better political analyst in the country. Here are the key points he made in today’s Bill Press Pod: The 2024 presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is seen as a very close race, with no clear frontrunner. Sabato believes Harris performed well in the first presidential debate, getting under Trump's skin effectively. However, the debate likely only moved the needle slightly in the polls. Sabato is skeptical of polls showing Harris with a comfortable lead, as he believes some Trump supporters are not being honest with pollsters. He points to significant polling misses in recent elections as evidence that the polls cannot be fully trusted. He expresses concern about the reliability of polls in key battleground states like Wisconsin, where polls have significantly underestimated Trump's performance in recent elections. He sees the vice presidential debate as a potential wild card, with Vance potentially struggling to match the performance of Harris's running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. Sabato is critical of Republican members of Congress who have not stood up to Trump, saying they are putting their party's interests ahead of the country.
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Transcript
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| 1:04.8 | Good day, good friends. |
| 1:08.6 | Good to join you again for another edition of the Bill Press Pod. |
| 1:12.3 | Hey, hey, only 49 days to go until November 5. Seven weeks left in what may be remembered as the most |
| 1:18.8 | unlikely and unpredictable presidential campaign ever. And what's striking about this campaign |
| 1:25.6 | is that despite a string of big happenings, two national |
| 1:29.9 | conventions, two presidential debates, two assassination attempts against Donald Trump, and even |
| 1:36.4 | Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris, it still looks like the race is neck and neck. |
| 1:42.5 | Most polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead |
| 1:45.2 | heat. Nothing seems to move the needle. It's going to be a close race all the way to the finish line |
| 1:51.2 | and looks like again, either one could win. Or as more Americans sense the gravity of this year's |
| 1:58.3 | election, could things start to change? Could Trump or Harris pull ahead? |
| 2:03.5 | Well, for an inside look at where we are today, we turn to our good friend Larry Sabato, |
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