76. William Poundstone — The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe
The Michael Shermer Show
Michael Shermer
4.4 • 921 Ratings
🗓️ 23 July 2019
⏱️ 80 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
- When will the world end?
- How likely is it that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists?
- Are we living in a simulation like the Matrix?
- Is our universe but one in a multiverse?
- How does Warren Buffett continue to beat the stock market?
- How much longer will your romance last?
In this wide ranging conversation with science writer William Poundstone, answers to these questions, and more, will be provided … or at least considered in the framework of Bayesian analysis. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes’ formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy.
But here’s where things get really interesting: Bayes’ theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the “many worlds” interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?
The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley’s profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it’s the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi everyone, thanks for listening to the podcast. |
| 0:02.4 | I'm Michael Schirmer, the host. |
| 0:04.1 | As you'll see, we have a new slightly modified studio backdrop. |
| 0:07.8 | This is a scan of a flower by Katinka Madsen. |
| 0:14.0 | That is our new backdrop, at least for this episode and maybe hopefully for a few others |
| 0:18.0 | and just kind of trying to spiff up the studio here and Katinka is along with John Brockman, |
| 0:28.5 | Run Brockman Inc. who is my literary agent, the agency of many of the science writers you're probably familiar with. |
| 0:35.5 | Anyway, she does this art on the side. |
| 0:37.7 | It's beautiful. |
| 0:38.7 | I was pleased to purchase this |
| 0:43.2 | to good use. And as always, thank you for the support of the podcast, which in generally goes |
| 0:48.3 | with support of the Skeptic Society. We're a 501c3 nonprofit, |
| 0:52.1 | science education organization, and this is what we do. |
| 0:56.5 | Trying to keep up with the rapidly changing digital world, so having a podcast and trying to expand our horizons, I've been mostly doing science books by scientists and science writers, |
| 1:09.0 | but I want to expand that and do more non-fiction books, history books, philosophy and other subjects. |
| 1:17.5 | So to that extent, watch this space. |
| 1:19.8 | My guest for today is William Poundstone, the doomsday calculation, how an equation |
| 1:25.8 | that predicts the future is transforming everything we know about the life and |
| 1:30.7 | the universe. This is the famous calculation of when the world's going to end, |
| 1:36.3 | expand it to a whole bunch of other subjects as you'll hear. How long a relationship will last, |
| 1:48.0 | how long a company will last on the stock market, whether we live in the multiverse, if there's extraterrestrial intelligence out there, will AI spell the doom of us or nukes or whatever? You can make the |
| 1:55.4 | doomsday calculation very specific. These are all Bayesian calculations |
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