Well, as is the case with so much of what has taken place since last week's presidential debate. I have an update for

you about polling which I said was going to be what I wanted to look at post debate

to figure out the impact of that debate and depending on which story you want to tell

yourself depending on which pundit or commentator or influencer you want to

listen to you can find a case that the polling has fallen off of a cliff for Joe Biden and he

couldn't possibly win or you can find and make the case that it's hurt him a

little bit but it does not at all appear as though this ends President Biden's

chances at re-election.

Let me give you the numbers and then you figure it out.

Now, first and foremost, it is accurate to say that Trump's lead nationally has surged 60% since the debate.

Where do I get those numbers?

Well, the real clear politics polling average going into the debate was a 1.5

percentage point lead for Trump, and it is now a 2.4 percentage point lead for Trump,

an increase of 9 tenths of a point going from 1.5 to 2.4.

That is indeed our arithmetic savants will be able to confirm an increase in the size of the lead of 60%.

But what's the counterpoint to that?

The counterpoint is quite simple.

It's less than a point.

The margin of error in the vast majority of

the underlying polls is somewhere between two and four or three and five

percentage points. The fact that this was arguably the worst debate performance in what decades and it has

only cost Joe Biden nine tenths of a point some of which he may recover between

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