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Thinking Basketball

#63: The Big Bubble lesson? Evaluating small samples...

Thinking Basketball

Thinking Basketball

Sports

4.9897 Ratings

🗓️ 25 September 2020

⏱️ 43 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

There are lots of takeaways from the bubble, but is the biggest lesson how much we struggle with evaluating players/teams in small sample seasons? With a unique experiment on our hands, how much has jumping to the playoffs in a “new” season influenced our perceptions? And how much can we confidently conclude about players and teams in these small samples? Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball. Check out the $1/month offer (through Oct. 9) of the Athletic at http://www.theathletic.com/thinkingbasketball --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thinking-basketball/support

Transcript

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0:00.0

Thinking Basketball Podcast, my name is Ben.

0:02.0

Welcome back to another show.

0:04.0

One of the last shows of the 2020 season, I guess,

0:17.5

for winding down the year. It's really crazy to think about how long this season has been and how far we've come.

0:27.0

And here as of recording this sitting on the precipice of the NBA finals, each series in the East and the West currently stands at 3.1.

0:36.4

Lakers ahead of the nuggets in the Western Conference. In the Orlando Bubble Western

0:42.2

Conference Hotel Edition and then in the east the heat with the

0:47.6

3-1 edge over the Celtics.

0:50.2

So today I wanted to discuss sort of a big lesson or lessons, kind of like things that have jumped out to me from the bubble.

1:01.2

And you could go in so many different directions here in terms of

1:05.1

neutral court, no crowd, the backdrop of the shooting and things of this nature but

1:11.4

there's one specific element that I keep coming back to that

1:17.0

kind of jumps out as a theme that is a big takeaway for me.

1:22.8

And we'll get to exactly what that is shortly in the show.

1:28.0

But there is a line of thinking that led me

1:31.4

to this particular takeaway or learning that I want to talk about today.

1:36.4

So let's start with that.

1:37.4

And that line of thinking starts with an idea that I've mentioned before, I think I mentioned it over the summer, which is that

1:46.4

rookies are no longer rookies.

1:50.4

It's something that's said seasonally when you get to the end of the season and you say,

1:54.0

well, a rookie isn't really a rookie, you'll hear coaches say it, a rookie isn't a rookie anymore

1:58.0

because he's been through the 80 games and he's gotten past the rookie wall and now he's in the playoffs

...

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