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BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

568: BiggerNews February: Analyst Who Predicted '07 Crash Sees "Yellow Flags" w/ Ivy Zelman

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

BiggerPockets

Education, Business, Investing

4.816.5K Ratings

🗓️ 8 February 2022

⏱️ 67 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The housing market is an evolving beast that almost no one can accurately map. With so many investors on opposite sides of the fence when it comes to housing market crashes and corrections, it’s nice to hear the thoughts of someone who has accurately predicted past crashes. We’re honored to have Ivy Zelman from Zelman & Associates on today to discuss the modern housing market, supply chain shortages, and overbuilding problems.

Zelman accurately predicted the 2007 housing market crash and has been on the front line of analysis and forecasting when it comes to all things housing market-related. She’s seen the data firsthand and has a broad understanding of which factors specifically impact prices, demand, and overall availability. David Greene and Dave Meyer take some time to ask her the top-of-mind questions that investors and first-time homebuyers want answered.

If you’re planning on purchasing real estate in the next year or two, it may be best to get Zelman’s opinion before putting in your offer. She’s seeing multiple “yellow flags” that may signal stark changes within the housing market, either allowing you to scoop up better deals in the near future or at least mitigate loss when buying at these record-high prices.

In This Episode We Cover:

The similarities between the 2007 housing market and today’s housing market

Affordability and how it greatly impacts both buying and selling behavior

The “overbuilding problem” we’re seeing with many multifamily developers

Supply chain problems, labor shortages, and other factors impacting new construction

Who should (and should not) buy real estate over the next couple of years

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

BiggerPockets Jobs

BiggerPockets Youtube Channel

BiggerPockets Forums

National Association of Realtors (NAR)

Cradle to Grave by Zelman & Associates

Zillow

Listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/show568

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is the Bigger Pockets Podcast Show, 568.

0:04.7

Well, we were bullish from 2012 to really 2020, the end of 2020,

0:11.4

when we started seeing the momentum that we just didn't think was sustainable.

0:15.1

So we're not looking to be bearish, but we do see a cautionary number of yellow flags

0:21.6

that we need to continue to monitor.

0:30.5

What's going on, everyone? It is your host, David Green of the Bigger Pockets Real Estate

0:34.7

Podcast here with a special edition, which I am doing bigger news with my cohort friend

0:41.3

and real estate genius, Dave Meyer. Dave, what's going on?

0:44.6

Not much, man. It's great to be back. I feel like it's been a really long time since we recorded

0:49.3

it together. We have a natural chemistry. It's like John Stockton got Karl Malone back.

0:53.9

I know that's a sports analogy and part of my pledge of 2022 is to make less of those,

0:57.5

but still a bit. To the end of, you've had so many good co-hosts and awesome shows. I've

1:04.4

been listening to them all since we last recorded, but I like that we get to do this every once in a

1:09.0

while. I think it works well. I hope that our listeners appreciate it because there's so much

1:14.4

changing in the market these days. It's really important for investors to stay on top of the

1:19.5

economic situation to help inform good investing decisions. That is exactly right. Basically,

1:26.4

we at Bigger Pockets have recognized that the market is changing faster than it ever has. We

1:30.8

need to be putting out more content than we ever have and more relevant content at that. Today's

1:36.4

guest, Ivy Zellman, was one of the people who called the crash in 2005-2006 and works by looking

1:42.8

at data, which is why we have Dave here to help me tag team this show to predict what is going

1:48.3

to happen in the market in the future. And Ivy brings a very practical, consistent, logical

1:53.8

approach using data about supply to try to help us determine when we might see a market correction.

...

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