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TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

#550: Predicting The Impact of Derivatives on Bitcoin with James Check

TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Marty Bent

Technology

4.8764 Ratings

🗓️ 28 October 2024

⏱️ 77 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Marty sits down with James Check to discuss how institutions utilizing bitcoin derivatives will change how bitcoin's price moves.


James on Twitter: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_


James's Newsletter: https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/



0:00 - Intro

1:17 - Explaining chopsolidation and institutional reaction

12:48 - Options and other derivatives

18:54- Unchained

19:45 - A new breed of hodler

27:12 - Zaprite and SOTE

28:44 - Volatility

36:27 - Comparing to previous cycles

42:18 - How would a major crisis affect price?

48:09 - Dispassionate decision-making

51:25 - Will they successfully demonize bitcoin?

58:01 - Institutional alliance and gold

1:09:00 - How high

1:15:00 - James's newsletter




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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

You actually need derivatives for us to get big eye.

0:03.4

James Check specializes in studying the Bitcoin economy

0:05.9

and has made significant contributions to the field of on-chain analysis.

0:10.4

He accurately predicted this long stretch of consolidation

0:12.8

and has formulated new theories on how the introduction of more Bitcoin derivatives

0:17.1

will affect the market, many of which he will share today.

0:20.5

What are the options going to do as it pertains to price and more importantly volatility moving forward?

0:25.6

There is no question the volatility profile will evolve and change with options.

0:29.6

I think cycles, the idea of cycles is probably breaking down.

0:33.6

The four year may not be as clear cut as it used to be, so I'm certainly running on that assumption.

0:38.3

Which side of the market do you think blows up first, the loans and the shorts?

0:41.3

Well, you've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free.

0:51.3

If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.

0:57.0

So it's all acting like safe haven.

1:00.0

I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,

1:05.0

Bitcoin wins.

1:06.0

In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

1:10.0

I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

1:13.0

If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

1:17.6

Was that a bull trap that we just saw last night?

1:20.0

Are we bull trapped right now, James?

1:21.3

I mean, if you look at the sentiment on Twitter, right?

...

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