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Thinking Basketball

#48: Tatum vs. Giannis & BPM 2.0! Inside Basketball-Reference's new metric

Thinking Basketball

Thinking Basketball

Sports

4.9897 Ratings

🗓️ 1 March 2020

⏱️ 53 minutes

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Summary

I take a first look at the new Box Plus-Minus on Basketball-Reference that goes back to 1974, including an all-time top-10 list based on playoff BPM. What kind of player does the model love? What are the improvements from the old 1.0 on the site? And can the emerging Jayson Tatum unseat Giannis Antetokoumnpo in his quest to do something no one has ever done? Support at www.patreon.com/thinkingbasketball --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thinking-basketball/support

Transcript

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0:00.0

Thank you.

0:01.0

Thank you basketball podcast. My name is Ben. Welcome back to another episode. Today we are going to dive under the

0:15.2

hood of basketball references brand new, brand spanking new, hot off the

0:20.0

presses this week, Box Plus-minus 2.0, that's right, BPM 2.0, finally out, Daniel Myers and the

0:27.6

team, the creator of that metric and then the team over at basketball reference have added

0:31.8

it to the website so you'll see new values

0:34.4

for players and we'll look under the hood we'll try to understand how to interpret

0:39.9

that sort of the quirks and strengths and weaknesses and biases of that metric and then we'll bring it home with I guess for

0:48.4

Lack of a better way to to put it the the box plus-minus 2.0 on basketball reference the the goat what a second that is not a how can how can there be no better way to put it than what I'm attempting to say here. The goat list according to this stat. We will

1:06.1

look at some of the best, I think we'll do like five year, five year playoff peaks or something like that just to distill what this metric is saying what players it likes and it doesn't like

1:18.3

We'll wrap up the show with that, but before we dive in two box plus minus get kind of nerdy if you will and hey look if you're not a huge stats person or analytics person and you can sort of your eyeballs start to bleed when you get hit with

1:36.7

too many graphs and spreadsheets. The point of looking under the hood for a metric like this

1:59.2

is besides looking under the hood for a metric like this is, besides getting some of the fun results at the end and thinking about what they say, but the point really is to say, okay, basketball is a sport where we know we need additional information to sort of augment and help us interpret what's going on out there because there's too much for the eye to see.

2:04.3

There's just way too much to get everything that's happening and in the case of something

2:09.9

like box plus minus it's trying to give us a similar lens across history.

2:16.8

So I've talked about this before, I think on the podcast, but certainly, patron subscribers

2:22.1

know this. The box model that I released to them is really it's not

2:27.6

designed to be a picture perfect basketball model of player ranking and team assessment based on what happens today

2:36.4

because we have more information today that we can bake in. Instead it's trying to use what we have

2:41.2

historically and this is what BPM 2.0 is doing,

2:45.0

we're going to use what you have historically to give us insights into things that you can't see

2:50.0

and give us estimates and kind of understand a player's statistical footprint.

...

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