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Freakonomics Radio

421. How to Prevent Another Great Depression

Freakonomics Radio

Freakonomics Radio + Stitcher

Documentary, Society & Culture

4.6 β€’ 32K Ratings

πŸ—“οΈ 11 June 2020

⏱️ 38 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Millions and millions are out of work, with some jobs never coming back. We speak with four economists β€” and one former presidential candidate β€” about the best policy options and the lessons (good and bad) from the past.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Last week on the show, we started a conversation about the massive job loss from COVID-19.

0:07.7

The true unemployment rate is probably around 19-20% right now.

0:13.9

No one was prepared for this.

0:15.9

If a year ago the same person had brought me this table of statistics and said this is

0:21.5

what I calculated, I would have said you did something wrong.

0:25.3

So how will re-employment happen?

0:27.9

Last week, the U.S. Department of Labor delivered a huge surprise.

0:31.8

Its jobs report for the month of May found that the economy, rather than losing another

0:36.4

8 million jobs, as was predicted, actually added back to a half million jobs.

0:41.8

That said, the unemployment rate is still higher than it's been since the Great Depression,

0:46.6

and a lot of the lost jobs in retail and restaurants, for instance, are unlikely to return

0:51.8

anytime soon.

0:53.6

Many high-income employees like consultants and lawyers and middle managers will suffer,

0:59.1

but a lot of lower-paying jobs may simply disappear, whether due to lack of demand, or

1:05.4

the increase in automation.

1:08.1

Last week, we looked at one employment policy that was designed to help a certain category

1:12.3

of low-income employee, former prisoners, often young men without a college degree.

1:17.9

The policy is called Ban the Box, and it got rid of the box that job applicants used

1:22.3

to check to indicate that they had been in prison.

1:25.2

The idea was that employers would be less likely to rule out such an applicant early in

1:29.9

the process and give them a better chance of getting hired.

1:33.6

But the policy is mostly backfired, punishing applicants who hadn't been to prison, but

...

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