Now that the presidential primaries are finally underway, which means that rather than taking

up 90% of your daily news coverage, the election will now take up 100%.

There is a question I think is worth asking.

But let me say this, you probably won't think this question is worth asking.

You'll probably think this question is dumber than dumb, a waste of neurons.

The question we first asked in Freakonomics land back when George W. Bush was president,

then again during the Obama era, and here we are now in the age of Trump, with a president

who's just been impeached, no less.

And yet, the question we want to ask today is this.

How much does the president of the United States really matter?

I fully recognize this may not sound like a sensible question, but the answer is too obvious.

So why do I think it's worth asking?

Because we humans aren't always so good at understanding cause and effect.

Intellectually, you know this.

We talk all the time on this show about how the relationship between X and Y isn't always

what it seems.

Other less obvious factors may be important, but emotionally, that's a different story.

Emotionally, we tend to be drawn to clean, simple explanations of cause and effect, even

if the reality is more nuanced.

This may be a form of mythical reductionism.

We love our heroes and our villains.

So if you happen to hate a particular president and I ask you how much does the president

...