It looks like I'm making a habit of doing an annual end of summer big picture episode.

Last year, I spoke to Marshall Koslov about the realignment of American politics. You can check

that conversation out at episode 301. But this year, I'm going even bigger picture, even more philosophical,

even more, what does it all mean? Today, we're going to talk about societal collapse. Joseph Tainter is an

anthropologist and historian at Utah State University. In 1988, he published an invaluable book,

The Collapse of Complex Societies. As the title suggests, Dr. Tainter explored, quote, the dilemma of fallen

empires and devastated cities, the troublesome image of, quote, the vast human endeavors that have

mysteriously failed. Societies, he posited, are problem-solving organizations.

What then causes them to cease solving problems?

What, in short, causes them to die?

Dr. Tainter looked at various discrete factors that are often credited with causing collapse,

such as resource depletion, intruders, social dysfunction. And he found their explanatory power wanting. Although one of these factors might well contribute to a society's

fall here and another of them to a societies fall there, none of them is present in more than a subset

of cases. What's more, healthy societies tend to meet the challenges that

come at them. Dr. Tainter sought a more fundamental causal factor. He landed on the concept of

societal complexity. Societies often try to address problems by using complexity as a tool.

They form military hierarchies. They concoct intricate

religious orders and ceremonies. They build vast infrastructures. They create new governmental

administrative bodies and so on. But in societies as in living organisms, increased complexity

always comes with a metabolic cost.

Over time, therefore, the use of complexity to solve problems hits diminishing marginal

returns and becomes ineffective or downright pernicious.

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