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Freakonomics Radio

323. Here’s Why All Your Projects Are Always Late — and What to Do About It

Freakonomics Radio

Freakonomics Radio + Stitcher

Documentary, Society & Culture

4.632K Ratings

🗓️ 8 March 2018

⏱️ 41 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Whether it's a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it'll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That's because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.” (You also have an “optimism bias” and a bad case of overconfidence.) But don't worry: we've got the solution.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

In 1968, 50 years ago, the governor of New York State Nelson Rockefeller received a proposal

0:09.5

he'd commissioned. It addressed the mass transit needs of the New York City area. One centerpiece

0:15.0

of the plan was a new subway line that would run from Lower Manhattan up the east side and into

0:20.0

the Bronx. It was called the Second Avenue Subway. Four years later, Rockefeller and New York City

0:26.4

Mayor John Lindsay held a groundbreaking ceremony for the Second Avenue Subway, but not long afterward,

0:32.4

the project was shelved because of a fiscal crisis. Years later, a new governor, Mario Cuomo,

0:38.4

tried to restart it, but once again, the budget would not allow and back it went on the shelf.

0:44.6

By now, the Second Avenue Subway had become a punchline. A New Yorker would promise to pay back

0:49.4

alone once the Second Avenue Subway was built. It came to be known as the most famous thing that's

0:54.7

never been built in New York City. But then, a long came a man named Michael. Here, I'm going to

1:02.3

let him say it. Michael O'Rodney-Chiano, if you look to see how people on Second Avenue would recognize

1:10.3

me as Dr. H. No one is really willing to pronounce my last name. Okay, let's go with Dr. H. He is a

1:18.4

long-time transportation scholar and executive. In 2008, he became president of capital construction

1:25.0

for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. And one of the first things he did was restart

1:30.4

the Second Avenue Subway. By now, it was 40 years since Governor Rockefeller's original proposal.

1:36.6

Dr. H. updated the budgets and estimates and finally got construction started. In 2010,

1:43.0

a massive tunnel-boring machine began its work underneath the Second Street.

1:49.3

So, they're about to start and they probed ahead into the rock. And then suddenly,

1:56.9

the realization is that the quality of the rock was poor. In effect, there was water going through

2:03.2

there. So, the decision was made that we have to freeze about close to two blocks. It took us four

2:10.9

months to actually freeze the ground. And it's costly. On Second Avenue, we spent $10 million to do it.

2:19.5

$10 million and four months just to freeze the ground just to start building the tunnel.

...

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