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The John Batchelor Show

3: PREVIEW China's Economic Slowdown, Deflation, and the Spectre of Japanification. Guest: Andrew Collier. Andrew Collier discusses China's economic woes, characterized by persistent deflation, with the CPI down 0.3% (6 out of 9 months in the red) and the PP

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 15 October 2025

⏱️ 1 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

PREVIEW

China's Economic Slowdown, Deflation, and the Spectre of Japanification. Guest: Andrew Collier. Andrew Collier discusses China's economic woes, characterized by persistent deflation, with the CPI down 0.3% (6 out of 9 months in the red) and the PPI down for 36 straight months. This environment raises concerns about "Japanification"—a multi-decade slowdown after a property crash. Major structural changes to stimulate consumer consumption are unlikely at the upcoming Communist Party plenum, as the system favors state investment. The property market collapse means foreign investment is leaving, and Collier suggests the economy may not bottom until 2027 or 2028.
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Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:01.9

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0:04.1

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0:24.7

This is John Batchel, a conversation with colleague, Andrew Collier,

0:31.0

the principle of orient capital research about the Chinese economy, sinking, sinking,

0:36.0

seeking, deflationary age, banification, many ways to say it.

0:40.8

Bottom, not yet. Andrew explains and why, what happened. He explains very succinctly. More of this tonight. Nobody's going to invest in China right now.

0:47.2

In fact, the money's leaving China. I have a few queries from some funds that are looking to get back

0:52.7

into China. I think they're crazy,

0:54.6

but they may be trying to get ahead of what they think may be the bottom of the Chinese economy,

0:59.6

which I don't think the bottom is quite here yet. But for the most part, the money has left.

1:05.0

So the FDI that created the boom in China after the WTO entry, when you had GM setting up plants, Apple has huge

1:12.6

operations through their other companies like Foxcon.

1:16.1

All that stuff is still there, but they're certainly not adding to it.

1:20.1

And that is compounding the problems for China.

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