I want to slightly more substantively address the Republican primary polling that's out there

right now.

I got a handful of emails from people in the audience, nice people like you, who said,

you know, David, I see that Trump's winning a bunch of polls and DeSantis is winning a

couple.

This is the primary polling, of course.

Does this really matter at this point in time?

And that's more or less exactly the right question that should be asked.

In other words, the critical questions are how accurate are presidential primary polls

in March of the year before the election?

And secondly, is there something special this time around that might make polling more or

less relevant regardless of how accurate polling tends to be at this point in an election

cycle?

So let's go through this step by step.

First of all, it remains the case that Trump is ahead of DeSantis in most 2024 primary

polling and the higher rated the pollster, generally speaking, the more Trump seems to be

winning by what we'll look at a couple of examples here.

The latest poll is from Quinnipiac University.

That's an A minus rated pollster, a very good pollster.

They have Trump plus 11 against DeSantis in a head to head matchup and Trump plus 14 against

DeSantis in a multi way matchup.

That trend is holding in basically every poll, which is Trump does better against DeSantis

...