3/17/23: 2024 polling a rollercoaster as CRT confusion grows
The David Pakman Show
David Pakman
4.8 β’ 6.2K Ratings
ποΈ 17 March 2023
β±οΈ 68 minutes
ποΈ Recording | iTunes | RSS
π§ΎοΈ Download transcript
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| 0:00.0 | I want to slightly more substantively address the Republican primary polling that's out there |
| 0:21.8 | right now. |
| 0:22.8 | I got a handful of emails from people in the audience, nice people like you, who said, |
| 0:27.9 | you know, David, I see that Trump's winning a bunch of polls and DeSantis is winning a |
| 0:32.0 | couple. |
| 0:33.0 | This is the primary polling, of course. |
| 0:35.4 | Does this really matter at this point in time? |
| 0:38.0 | And that's more or less exactly the right question that should be asked. |
| 0:41.2 | In other words, the critical questions are how accurate are presidential primary polls |
| 0:46.8 | in March of the year before the election? |
| 0:49.4 | And secondly, is there something special this time around that might make polling more or |
| 0:56.4 | less relevant regardless of how accurate polling tends to be at this point in an election |
| 1:02.4 | cycle? |
| 1:03.4 | So let's go through this step by step. |
| 1:05.3 | First of all, it remains the case that Trump is ahead of DeSantis in most 2024 primary |
| 1:12.4 | polling and the higher rated the pollster, generally speaking, the more Trump seems to be |
| 1:20.8 | winning by what we'll look at a couple of examples here. |
| 1:22.9 | The latest poll is from Quinnipiac University. |
| 1:25.6 | That's an A minus rated pollster, a very good pollster. |
| 1:28.8 | They have Trump plus 11 against DeSantis in a head to head matchup and Trump plus 14 against |
| 1:35.5 | DeSantis in a multi way matchup. |
| 1:38.9 | That trend is holding in basically every poll, which is Trump does better against DeSantis |
... |
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