285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

Sean Carroll | Wondery

Society & Culture, Physics, Philosophy, Science, Ideas, Society

4.8 • 4.4K Ratings

🗓️ 12 August 2024

⏱️ 72 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Being rational necessarily involves engagement with probability. Given two possible courses of action, it can be rational to prefer the one that could possibly result in a worse outcome, if there's also a substantial probability for an even better outcome. But one's attitude toward risk -- averse, tolerant, or even seeking -- also matters. Do we work to avoid the worse possible outcome, even if there is potential for enormous reward? Nate Silver has long thought about probability and prediction, from sports to politics to professional poker. In his his new book On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Silver examines a set of traits characterizing people who welcome risks.

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Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2024/08/12/285-nate-silver-on-prediction-risk-and-rationality/

Nate Silver received a B.A. in economics from the University of Chicago. He worked as a baseball analyst, developing the PECOTA statistical system (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). He later founded the FiveThirtyEight political polling analysis site. His first book, The Signal and the Noise, was awarded the Phi Beta Kappa Society Book Award in Science. He is the co-host (with Maria Konnikova) of the Risky Business podcast.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	If you or someone you care about has cancer,
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0:14.0	Members support each other anonymously, sharing what's helped them on a range of subjects,
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0:25.1	children about a diagnosis. There are different forums on cancer types or experiences,
0:30.4	opportunities to ask an expert and blog post.
0:33.0	Find support 24-7 from people who get what it's like to have cancer.
0:38.0	To join, search McMillan online community.
0:41.0	Hello everyone and welcome to the Mindscape Podcast.
0:43.5	I'm your host, Sean Carroll.
0:45.9	Human beings have a tough time being rational sometimes.
0:49.4	We all know that, right?
0:50.4	There are various sorts of cognitive biases from wishful thinking to confirmation bias.
0:55.6	There's a whole long list you can you know look it up on the internet, but we human beings we evolved
1:00.4	over biological time to survive under certain conditions.
1:05.0	Sometimes sitting down and thinking things through perfectly
1:08.2	rationally is not the best survival strategy.
1:10.8	You have to have some heuristics.
1:12.0	You have to see something and react to it very, very quickly.
1:15.0	But I think most of us would agree that all else being equal, it is better to be rational
	...

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