20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

The Twenty Minute VC

Finance, Venturecapital, Tech News, News, Siliconvalley, Technology, Investing, Startups, Business

4.4 • 637 Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2022

⏱️ 57 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Fabrice Grinda is the Founding Partner @ FJ Labs, with over 700 investments, Fabrice has had over 250 exits and built a portfolio including Alibaba, Coupang, Airbnb, Instacart, Flexport, and Delivery Hero, and many more. Prior to FJ Labs, Fabrice served as CEO for three multinational companies; including OLX, one of the largest websites in the world with over 300 million unique visitors per month. As a result of his incredible investing success, Fabrice was named the #1 Angel Investor in the world by Forbes.

In Today's Episode with Fabrice Grinda:

1.) Everything Great Starts Small:

How did Fabrice make his way into the world of investing from founding 3 companies?
How does Fabrice feel about founders raising funds with external LPs?
Why does Fabrice feel that investing as an angel made him a better CEO?

2.) WTF is Going On: The Market Today

How does Fabrice assess what is happening in the market today?
What is causing the massive public market drops we are seeing?
How do inflation rates and interest rates have such an impact on where we are?
How much of this is a result of COVID, the shift to goods from services and supply chains?

3.) The Optimistic Case:

How does Fabrice think things could get better from here? What needs to happen?
What could the Fed do to enable this optimistic outcome to take place?
What would need to happen in geo-politics and Russia for this to happen?
What is the probability today of this optimistic case happening?

4.) The Great Stagnation:

How does Fabrice think the economy could go sideways from here?
What are the core drivers of this?
Why is this the most likely outcome of all? What is the probability of this happening?

5.) The Catastrophe:

How could this market get so much worse?
What level of interest rate change would cause this outcome to occur?
Why does Fabrice think that Switzerland is a "House of Cards"? What would this mean if Switzerland fell? What other European countries does Fabrice think are vulnerable?

6.) What this Means for Venture:

How will LPs respond to these differing situations?
How does this impact how Fabrice thinks about his rate of deployment?
What segment of the market is Fabrice most excited for; early or growth?

Mentioned in Today's Episode with Fabrice Grinda:

Fabrice's Favourite Book: Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to 20VC. The markets are changing fast and stay with our guests we dig into where we are today and then outline three different cases for where it could go from here.
0:09.7	The good, the bad and the stagnant. And then we attach probabilities to each. Always a dangerous exercise.
0:15.0	But this is a masterclass in macro and broader economics. It really was such a joy for me to do, and so I'm thrilled to welcome
0:20.9	Fabrice Grinder, founding partner at FJ Labs. With over 700 investments, Fabrice has had over 250
0:27.0	exits and built a portfolio including Ali Barbar, Kupang, Airbnb, Instacart, and Delivery
0:33.0	Hero, to name a few. Prior to FJ Labs, Fabrice served as CEO for three multinational companies,
0:38.5	including OLX, one of the largest websites in the world with over 300 million unique visitors
0:43.3	per month. As a result of his incredible investing success, Fabrice was named as the number one
0:47.9	angel investor in the world by Forbes. But before we dive into the show with Fabrice today,
0:52.5	Harvard Management Company is constantly seeking out the next generation of great investors and entrepreneurs.
0:58.1	HMC has managed Harvard University's endowment for nearly 50 years and was one of the first institutional investors in venture capital.
1:05.3	Their experience in long-term investment horizon makes them ideal partners to get world-changing ideas on a path to viability and
1:12.5	success. They work as a true partner providing insightful perspectives to help managers succeed. I personally
1:18.2	have had the pleasure of working with the HMC team and can say that they're truly
1:21.7	exceptional partners, people and incredibly savvy investors. Whether you are launching your first
1:26.8	fund or your fifth,
1:28.2	HMC welcomes the opportunity to partner with both developing and established managers.
1:32.7	Have an idea you want to share with the team?
1:34.5	Just send it to venture at HMC.harvard.edu.
1:39.4	And speaking of amazing partners with HMC there,
1:41.9	Mercury is building full-stack banking for startups.
1:44.7	Apply in under 10 minutes from anywhere for FDIC-insured bank accounts, physical and virtual
	...

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