20VC: Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not | Lovable vs Replit: Will These Be $100BN Businesses | Why Elon Could Beat Sam Altman with the New Grok | Why Every S&P 500 Company Will Buy Bitcoin?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

The Twenty Minute VC

Finance, Venturecapital, Tech News, News, Siliconvalley, Technology, Investing, Startups, Business

4.4 • 637 Ratings

🗓️ 17 July 2025

⏱️ 82 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Agenda:

00:00 Windsurf was dead—then this deal changed everything

05:00 The Windsurf x Google x Cognition saga explained

09:00 The OpenAI deal collapsed—what really happened

15:00 FTC rules forced a brutal deal structure—who lost?

17:00 The investors’ returns: who actually made money?

21:30 Will Google’s corp dev team get fired over this?

23:00 Cognition’s genius $220M acquisition of Windsurf: Most brilliant Deal of the Year

26:00 The biggest recruiting flex in Silicon Valley this year

35:00 “Roll your own SaaS” is complete nonsense

38:00 Lovable vs Cursor vs Replit: who wins the coding war?

41:00 Why Lovable could be the ChatGPT of builders

44:00 Will these vibe-coded apps become durable businesses?

48:00 The shocking churn rates hidden inside AI SaaS

55:00 Are these $2B valuations actually... cheap?

56:30 Grok just destroyed GPT-4 in benchmarks—WTF?!

01:01:00 Why Grok might overtake OpenAI in the next 12 months

01:11:00 Meta just invested $3.5B in Ray-Bans—WTF?

01:12:30 Should every S&P 500 company buy Bitcoin now?

01:15:00 Will Meta kill open source? What happens to Llama 5?

Transcript

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0:00.0	I think windsurf was hopeless before this deal.
0:02.5	You could never attract 30 S-tier developers to fix windsurf, but they fixed it in one hour.
0:09.3	Literally in 90 days, windsurf could be better than it was before this deal.
0:12.7	It's crazy it sounds because they have the people.
0:14.4	Some of these deals almost seem too cheap.
0:16.2	If you look at the crappy multiples we see for some startups, right, undifferentiated company raising it 300 pre with less than a million of revenue.
0:25.1	And then you see what is windsurf selling for?
0:28.0	20x revenue.
0:29.4	Lovable's raising at 20?
0:31.8	This is 20 VC with me, Harry Stebbings.
0:33.6	And my God, this week has been agonizing for me.
0:36.1	We've had the windsurf deal go down
0:38.1	and all along I've been thinking I cannot wait to discuss this with Rory and Jason and hear
0:43.4	what they think. So today we sit down with Rory O'Driscoll and Jason Lampkin and discuss the
0:48.7	windsurf outcome. We also discuss Grok's latest benchmark performance outpacing everyone's expectations.
0:55.5	And then we discussed the rise of vibe coding, replet versus lovable, and what will make them
1:00.6	incredibly sticky and sustainable revenue generating businesses.
1:04.3	This was an incredible discussion.
1:06.2	And I'd love your thoughts.
1:07.2	Email me your feedback, Harry at 20VC.com.
1:12.8	But before we dive into the show today,
1:19.1	let's talk about agents, specifically Piper, the AISDR agent brought to you by Qualified,
	...

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