2025 Mortgage Delinquencies Tick Up: Will Housing Bounce Back OR Break Down?

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Investing, Business, Education

4.8 • 820 Ratings

🗓️ 24 February 2025

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

ICE’s February 2025 Mortgage Monitor report is out, revealing new data that may signal a “shift” in the housing market. Could these changes lead housing to bounce back or break down? One worrying metric is beginning to rise, but could it cause a downward spiral for the rest of the housing market? We’re uncovering it all on this episode with ICE’s Andy Walden. From mortgage delinquencies to interest rate fluctuations, insurance overhauls, and more buyer power, the housing market is changing quickly. We’ll first talk about why a specific subset of homeowners is becoming increasingly delinquent on their mortgage payments. This group makes up a significant portion of the market, but could this uptick trigger a rise in foreclosures? California’s wildfires became one of the costliest natural disasters in history, and with insurance providers already struggling, you may begin to feel the fiery effects on your next insurance bill regardless of where you live. Finally, some great news for buyers as Andy shares his optimistic forecast for mortgage rates and housing inventory, making it easier for you to buy your next property. In This Episode We Cover The worrying housing market metric that could signal distress among homeowners Whether California’s wildfires could cause your insurance rates to jump Foreclosure activity and why it isn’t vastly increasing as unemployment rises and inflation melts away spending power Andy’s 2025 mortgage rate forecast and when rates could fall this year Why homebuyers could have even better choices come this spring homebuying season And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Over 6 Million Americans Are Late on Their Mortgage Payments—Here’s What It Means for Investors February 2025 Mortgage Monitor Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Grab Dave’s Book, “Start with Strategy” Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-298 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	ICE's February mortgage monitor was just released.
0:08.5	Is this the year everything changes?
0:11.7	In 2024, we saw the softest home price growth since 2011.
0:16.4	So do recent signs point to a bigger shift occurring here in 2025. Andy Walden,
0:22.4	Vice President of Research and Analysis from Intercontinental Exchange, joins us today to
0:27.6	reveal new data on inventory, on climate risk, and rising delinquencies. If you're curious
0:33.8	whether housing will bounce back or break down, you won't want to miss these
0:37.9	insights. I'm Dave Meyer. Welcome to On the Market. Let's get into it. Andy, welcome back to On the
0:44.3	Market. Thanks for being here. You bet. Thank you for having me. I'm hoping we could talk a little
0:49.0	bit about the recent Mortgage Monitor report that you put out. We'll put a link to that if anyone wants to
0:55.4	check it out. A lot of great information in there. But maybe you can start by just giving us a
0:59.9	couple of highlights about housing market as you see it right now. Yeah. And there's obviously a lot
1:06.0	in that latest report. We go everywhere from talking about mortgage performance, homeowners'
1:10.1	ability to make their
1:11.0	mortgage payments in today's market. You're seeing a gradual rise in overall delinquencies,
1:15.5	and it's really kind of centered around borrowers that have taken out FHA loans, those kind of
1:20.8	low to moderate credit score, lower down payment type mortgages is where we're starting to see a little
1:25.8	bit of a pressure point on homeowners
1:27.9	out there in the market. So we took a deep dive into that this month. We looked at the latest California
1:32.9	wildfires, the magnitude of the impact that we're seeing in those particular areas and some of the
1:37.6	downstream ramifications into the insurance market, into the municipal bond market, some of those
1:42.2	local municipalities that are kind of struggling
	...

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