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The John Batchelor Show

2/2: #Maui: #Wildfires: #CA: The threat grows with El Nino and climate change & What is to be done? Hussam Mahmoud, Colorado State University, Nature Magazine.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 19 September 2023

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary


2/2: #Maui: #Wildfires: #CA: The threat grows with El Nino and climate change & What is to be done? Hussam Mahmoud, Colorado State University, Nature Magazine.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02687-2

1930 Honolulu

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:10.8

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0:20.4

This is CBSI in the world. I'm John Vatservici,

0:22.8

a professor of Hussam, Mahmoud, Colorado State University,

0:27.2

who, with his colleagues, have developed a model for communities to anticipate what would happen

0:33.0

if a wildfire breaches from the forest into the town. Mahmoud Hussam, what you said,

0:41.6

was most inviting to me because I've seen overviews of Maui, and it's like a tornado.

0:47.7

It comes through the community on one side is burned, and the other side is not.

0:52.8

Is that a way to talk about how fires act, and you go back, and you look at the

0:59.1

house that burned, and you look at the didn't, and you look at the wind conditions?

1:02.7

Is that what you're doing? Yeah, exactly. Of course, if the problem was easy, John,

1:09.6

we would have solved it by we, I mean the entire community by now. It's not easy.

1:14.7

So it's not intuitive for you to look at a burned community and think, why did it burn this way?

1:21.0

We can, people who have experience, can kind of get an idea, this must have been the wind

1:25.2

direction, or this must have been why did that, but it's really very difficult to tell.

1:31.6

So the model we have, we're able to actually provide information on the location of every building,

1:37.2

the location of vegetation, the type of materials used in the buildings, the type of vegetation,

1:42.4

and then we overlay on top of the wind speed and direction, and then the model calculates

1:48.0

two different physics-based fire propagation mechanisms, including something called

1:53.7

the radiation and convection, and the embers where they land, we're able to tell which homes

1:59.0

were likely burned or not, and that's what we did for the Hiner, that's what we did in Maui,

...

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