2/2: #IRAN: #ISRAEL: Wargaming an escalatory ladder to nuclear weapon exchanges between Tehran and Jerusalem. and Lessons Learned. Henry Sokolski, NPEC
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
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🗓️ 24 February 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
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2/2: #IRAN: #ISRAEL: Wargaming an escalatory ladder to nuclear weapon exchanges between Tehran and Jerusalem. and Lessons Learned. Henry Sokolski, NPEC
https://npolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2401-Gaming-Israeli-Nuclear-Use.pdf
May 19, 1953 Yucca Flats.
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| 0:00.0 | This is a series of cebse on the world. I'm John Bachelor with Henry Sikalski, the executive director of the nonproliferation Policy Education Center. |
| 0:13.8 | Also, someone who has sponsored a war game called Pandora Unleased about an exchange of nuclear weapons. |
| 0:20.8 | Asculatory latter up to and then including an exchange of nuclear weapons, escalatory up to and then including an exchange of nuclear weapons |
| 0:25.3 | between the Islamic Republic of Tehran and Israel. |
| 0:30.3 | And the game stops with the first two strikes on territory. |
| 0:36.0 | One against Israel, against an air base where Americans die, |
| 0:39.0 | another against command and control centers in Iran where Iranians die and we can presume |
| 0:45.6 | there are other nationals there as well. Henry we stop the game and we've come |
| 0:50.3 | to lessons learn. The first is about uncertainty and if I read this correctly |
| 0:57.3 | from your game playing with your colleagues, there is no clarity whatsoever even though |
| 1:02.4 | they've used nuclear weapons. Is that correct? |
| 1:04.7 | They don't know if the Israelis don't know if they've actually destroyed the targets they've aimed at. |
| 1:12.4 | The Americans don't know. destroyed the targets they've aimed at. |
| 1:13.2 | The Americans don't know exactly what the Israelis |
| 1:16.8 | have targeted because the Israelis are not sharing |
| 1:19.5 | information because they didn't get the level of cooperation they wanted from the Americans |
| 1:23.8 | in the first place. We know Russians have been killed, we know Americans have |
| 1:28.9 | been killed, we don't know if Russians and Americans are going to say well well, now we need to get into this war because of those |
| 1:36.5 | deaths. We don't know if Israel is going to fire more of its magazine, it has easily another 50 if not more nuclear weapons |
| 1:46.8 | left. We don't know if Iran has yet another nuclear weapon and whether it will |
| 1:51.8 | target Israel. |
| 1:53.2 | We don't know if the targets will turn from military targets to population targets, |
... |
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