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On The Market

189: The Fed’s Plan “Backfired,” Now They’re Scrambling w/Logan Mohtashami

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Investing, Business, Education

4.8820 Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2024

⏱️ 39 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Fed is putting us all in danger. With high rates, low inflation, a strong job market, and millions of Americans wishing they could buy a home (but can't), we're in a strange position. Buying a home is still unaffordable even with rising wages, but the Fed won't drop rates BECAUSE of rising wages and such strong job numbers. We're in a housing market stalemate, and all of this could have been avoided if the Fed stopped counting on old data to save them. You might think that these are wild claims, but thankfully, we've got the housing market expert of housing market experts on the show, Logan Mohtashami, to make his case. Logan's team at HousingWire tracks housing market data like no one else can. They have the most up-to-date metrics and the best forecasts in the industry and were right about this housing market, and the last one, the one before that, and…you get the point. It goes without saying Logan is the singular voice to trust when it comes to housing and the economy. Logan says the Fed is "playing with fire" by keeping mortgage rates as high as they are. They want to break the labor market, but with every number pointing to a return to normal, why should they? Logan gives his thoughts on why the Fed isn't dropping rates, the huge housing market mistake they're making, the metrics that could point to a disastrous labor market, and the harsh reality for first-time homebuyers. In This Episode We Cover: A normalizing job market and what could cause it to finally break  The Fed's massive mistake that is putting the housing market in danger Why the Fed won't lower mortgage rates yet and what they're waiting for  The devastating state of housing demand and why it shouldn't be like this in 2024 How lower-income households are getting hit the hardest, EVEN in an expanding economy  Bond market effects and why yields are staying so high  And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Henry's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's Instagram James' BiggerPockets Profile James' Instagram Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's Instagram BiggerPockets' Instagram The Crash Predictors Are Wrong, Here’s Why Here’s What Will Cause Mortgage Rates to Finally Fall Is The Fed Moving Fast Enough to Save Us From a Recession? The “HousingWire” Housing Market Tracker Connect with Logan HousingWire Logan's Instagram: @logan_mohtashami Logan's LinkedIn Logan's Website Logan's X/Twitter: @LoganMohtashami Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-189 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hey, everyone, welcome to On the Market.

0:09.2

I'm your host, Dave Meyer, joined today by Kathy Fecky to interview one of I think our mutually

0:14.8

favorite people in the entire industry.

0:18.7

Kathy, who do we got today?

0:20.4

Logan Motishami from Housing Wire is someone I

0:23.0

follow religiously. He is, he just gives insights on some of these data lines that the

0:29.6

news media gets wrong so often because it is confusing. So I think I'm just really excited to

0:36.0

get his insights today. Likewise. And Logan's been on the show,

0:39.2

I think two times previously. And if you've listened to him before or read, follow his work on

0:46.0

Housing Wire or he's very active on Twitter as well, you know that he is one of the best in the

0:51.4

industry at taking macroeconomic information, like what's going on with

0:56.1

bond yields and what's going on in the labor market and relating it back to specifically the

1:01.4

housing market and what is going on with home sales volume and home prices. And so today,

1:06.8

that's what we're going to get into with Logan. We're going to start by talking a lot

1:11.1

about the labor market, because I know he's been really interested in this. And I think it's

1:15.0

something that a lot of investors don't follow as closely as they should, because it does actually

1:20.9

have sort of these secondary or tertiary impacts on the housing market. And I'm really excited

1:26.9

for Logan to explain to us how that works.

1:29.8

Kathy, is there anything else you're looking forward to?

1:31.8

No, just want a good idea of what we can expect in 2024 and beyond.

1:36.1

All right.

1:36.5

Well, with that, let's bring on Logan Motoshami, the lead analyst for Housing Wire.

...

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