184: Fannie Mae’s Mortgage Rate “Range” to Expect in 2024 and 2025 w/Doug Duncan

On The Market

BiggerPockets

News, Investing, Business, Education

4.8 • 820 Ratings

🗓️ 29 January 2024

⏱️ 21 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Home prices will rise, home sales will jump, and mortgage rates will fall to a familiar range, according to Fannie Mae’s Doug Duncan. In their newest consumer sentiment survey, Fannie Mae points to a “tale of two housing markets” where both buyers and sellers are stuck. Rates aren’t low enough to get back into the housing market, and with prices set to rise, why should homeowners sell? Doug provides some incredible insight on today’s episode, explaining why housing market sentiment is still so low, what could boost homebuying demand, and where Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to be in 2024 and 2025. If you’re praying for rates to hit the rock-bottom levels of 2020 and 2021, Doug has some news you NEED to hear. But rates and prices aren’t the only factors impacting buying/selling. Our huge undersupply of housing is making the market even more competitive as builders remain stuck, forced to pay high interest rates and high labor costs, all during a time when most of America doesn’t want to purchase. How do we get out of this housing market stalemate? Stick around as one of the top minds in housing gives us his answers. In This Episode We Cover: Fannie Mae’s newest housing market sentiment numbers and what they mean for buying/selling 2024 vs. 2008 and the factors causing so much property purchasing pessimism The mortgage rate “range” we can expect in 2024 and 2025 The three factors that MUST change if we’re to see a return back to a normal housing market Recession indicators that are going off, EVEN with today’s solid economic growth The massive construction constraint that’s stopping more inventory from coming on the market And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Where America’s Most Accurate Forecaster Sees Home Prices in 2024 w/Doug Duncan With Mortgage Rates Set To Drop, Will This Be the Year Sellers Come Back? HousingWire CEO: This Inventory Shortage Could Last Decades Fannie Mae’s Latest National Housing Survey Connect with Doug: Fannie Mae Doug’s LinkedIn Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-184 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email [email protected]. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Hey, what's up everyone? Welcome to On the Market. My name is Dave Meyer, your host.
0:12.0	And today we're going to be talking to one of the most well-respected and knowledgeable housing
0:18.5	economists in the country. His name is Doug Duncan. He's the senior
0:22.7	vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. You're probably aware Fannie Mae, one of the biggest
0:28.6	government-back entities that provides mortgages to the entire country. And so Doug and his team
0:36.1	are really up on what's going on with the housing market.
0:40.3	And today, there are a couple things that I'm really excited to talk to him about.
0:43.7	First and foremost, his team collects information and consumer sentiment, not just consumers,
0:51.1	but homebuyer sentiment. And so we're going to talk about how people are feeling about the market,
0:56.4	and not just how they're feeling, but how their opinions of the market actually go on to
1:01.2	influence behavior and actual results in the marketplace.
1:05.9	And then Doug has one of the most nuanced and most specific understandings and predictions about
1:14.1	mortgage rates that you are likely to hear.
1:16.7	So if you're curious about where mortgage rates are heading this year and well beyond
1:20.2	where you can expect mortgage rates to live over the next couple of years, you're definitely
1:24.7	going to want to stick around for this episode.
1:27.1	So we are going to
1:28.3	take a quick break and then we'll bring on Doug Duncan from Fannie Mae.
1:39.8	Doug, thanks so much for joining us today. Happy to be here. Good to see you again. Likewise.
1:46.0	So recently, Fannie Mae released an economic outlook and a national housing survey.
1:52.0	So before we get into the outlook, I just curious a little bit about the sentiment.
1:56.0	How are American consumers feeling about the housing market according to the data you're collecting?
	...

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