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Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

150 | Simon DeDeo on How Explanations Work and Why They Sometimes Fail

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

Sean Carroll | Wondery

Society & Culture, Physics, Philosophy, Science, Ideas, Society

4.84.4K Ratings

🗓️ 7 June 2021

⏱️ 93 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

You observe a phenomenon, and come up with an explanation for it. That’s true for scientists, but also for literally every person. (Why won’t my car start? I bet it’s out of gas.) But there are literally an infinite number of possible explanations for every phenomenon we observe. How do we invent ones we think are promising, and then decide between them once invented? Simon DeDeo (in collaboration with Zachary Wojtowicz) has proposed a way to connect explanatory values (“simplicity,” “fitting the data,” etc) to specific mathematical expressions in Bayesian reasoning. We talk about what makes explanations good, and how they can get out of control, leading to conspiracy theories or general crackpottery, from QAnon to flat earthers.

Support Mindscape on Patreon.

Simon DeDeo received his Ph.D. in astrophysics from Princeton University. He is currently an Assistant Professor in Social and Decision Sciences at Carnegie Mellon University, and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.


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Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello everyone, welcome to the Mindscape Podcast. I'm your host Sean Carroll.

0:03.7

Obviously on a podcast like mine, we're often going to be talking to scientists,

0:07.3

various sorts, theoretical scientists in particular. Some of my favorites, not all of them,

0:12.7

but a lot of times we're talking about the ideas for how we might explain some scientific phenomenon.

0:19.2

Right? Coming up with a new theory, whether it's a dark matter or evolutionary biology or whatever

0:25.0

it's going to be, you might remember in fact that I had Lee Smolin on the podcast very recently

0:30.4

and despite the fact that we work in very similar areas and we're personally very friendly,

0:35.6

we have different ideas about how to go about building the better next generation scientific theories.

0:42.4

Why is that? How can two scientists who are both more or less trained in the same way come up

0:47.3

with very different preferences when it comes to building new explanations? That's what we're

0:52.0

on about today on today's podcast with Simon Didayo. Simon actually started as a theoretical

0:57.4

cosmologist, much like myself, but he switched into some combination of statistics and data-driven

1:04.2

social science and cognitive science. So it's a wonderfully difficult specialty to pin down,

1:09.7

but he's both at Carnegie Mellon University and also the Santa Fe Institute. So we overlap a lot

1:15.4

in our intellectual interests and what Simon talks about in the paper that we're going to be

1:20.0

discussing today is how explanations work and honestly explanations in this sense is kind of a

1:26.7

synonym for a theoretical viewpoint or formalism to answer some kind of question, right? So you have

1:33.6

some phenomenon whether it's my car broke down or there's dark matter in the universe and you want

1:39.0

to explain it. Now what happens is you can invent an explanation and different people will prefer

1:44.8

different kinds of explanations for different reasons. So what Simon and his collaborators have

1:49.3

done is to break down the different parts of Bayesian analysis that go into making a good explanation

1:56.1

and sort of quantify different preferences or different values you may have for choosing your

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