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The John Batchelor Show

108: REVIEW Michael Bernstam of the Hoover Institution analyzes the impact of sanctions on Russia, whose economy is hurt by cheap oil prices. The International Energy Agency forecasts a significant oil glut of 2 to 4 million barrels per day surplus in 2025 and

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 20 November 2025

⏱️ 2 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

REVIEW Michael Bernstam of the Hoover Institution analyzes the impact of sanctions on Russia, whose economy is hurt by cheap oil prices. The International Energy Agency forecasts a significant oil glut of 2 to 4 million barrels per day surplus in 2025 and 2026. This, along with US deregulation, means cheaper oil, potentially causing Russia to stumble into a deep recession. Guest: MichaelBernstam.

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is John Batchel.

0:02.7

Colleague, Michael Bernstein of the Hoover Institution follows the sanctions on Russia

0:07.5

and Russia's compensation.

0:10.3

Right now, the compensation is not looking healthy because price of oil.

0:16.1

Michael explains 2025 has too much oil for the demand. 2026, much too much oil. Here, Michael explains. 2025 has too much oil for the demand.

0:21.3

2026, much too much oil.

0:24.4

Here, Mike explains, and that translates right into the Russian problem.

0:29.2

There's not enough money coming in.

0:31.9

Russia is not in a good position now and going forward, if or not. If not, something happening dramatic.

0:40.0

This is a country that's tumbling into a deep recession.

0:43.9

High interest rates, nobody borrowing, lots of unemployment, trouble.

0:51.6

It's the day after that's the trouble.

0:57.0

Not the day of the end of the war, the day after. The International Energy Agency projects that the total oil supply in 2026 will be 108

1:05.0

million barrels per day, and they're saying that it will be the glut, the surplus will be from 2 to 4 million barrels

1:12.9

per day of the supply above the demand.

1:15.9

So yes, oil will be cheaper.

1:17.8

Now there is deregulation by the Trump administration.

1:20.6

So offshore oil in what used to be called the Gulf of Mexico now, the Gulf of America.

1:27.4

And the Alaska oil now will be more produced,

1:31.4

so there will be oil, glad for, and Russian oil will be very cheap with this discount.

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