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You Are Not So Smart

065 - Survivorship Bias (rebroadcast)

You Are Not So Smart

You Are Not So Smart

Science, Psychology, Brain, Business, Mental Health, Culture, Neuroscience, Mind, Health

4.61.8K Ratings

🗓️ 17 December 2015

⏱️ 31 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The problem with sorting out failures and success…

Transcript

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0:00.0

Me. Welcome to the You Are Not So Smart Podcast.

0:27.0

Episode 65. Oh, oh, oh, oh.

0:35.0

And do me. In New York City, in an apartment a few streets away from the center of Harlem,

0:50.0

above trees reaching out over sidewalks and dogs pulling at leashes and conversations cut short to avoid parking tickets.

0:57.6

A group of professional thinkers once gathered and completed equations that would both snuff and spare several hundred thousand

1:07.3

human lives. People walking by the apartment at the time had no idea that four stories above

1:28.8

them some of the most important work in applied mathematics was tilting the scales of a global conflict as secret agents

1:36.1

of the United States Armed Forces, arithmetical soldiers engaged in statistical combat, nor could people today know as they open umbrellas and twist

1:46.8

heels on cigarettes that nearby, in an apartment overlooking Morningside Heights, one of those soldiers once effortlessly prevented

1:55.2

the United States military from doing something incredibly stupid.

2:00.2

Something that could have changed the flags now flying in capitals around the world

2:04.8

had he not caught it.

2:06.6

Something you do every day.

2:09.6

These masters of math move their families across the country, some across an ocean, so they could work together.

2:19.0

As they unpacked, the theaters in their new hometowns replace posters for Citizen Kane with those for Casablanca,

2:26.4

and the newspapers they unwrapped from photo frames and plates featured stories still unraveling

2:31.4

the events at Pearl Harbor. Many still held

2:34.4

held positions at Pearl Harbor.

2:36.2

Others left those sorts of jobs to think deeply in one of the many groups that

2:40.9

worked for the armed forces, free of any other obligations aside from

2:45.1

checking in on their families at night and feeding their brains during the day.

2:50.1

All paused their careers and rushed to enlist so they could help crush Hitler, not with guns and

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